The rainy season dawns but El Niño may spoil the party again
Windhoek-For the fifth year in a row Namibian farmers have their eyes glued on weather predictions in anticipation of the rainy season, while disturbing reports have started circulating about the chances of an El Niño event forming later this year which could once again result in below average rainfall.
There is a 50-60% chance of an El Niño in late 2017, according to an update from the World Meteorological Organisation. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring phenomenon involving fluctuating ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the atmosphere. It has a major influence on weather patterns in many parts of the world and has a warming impact on global air temperatures.
It was responsible for three consecutive droughts in Namibia since 2013.
According to the Department of Meteorological Services in the Ministry of Works and Transport, the current ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean are neutral which make it difficult to make a forecast for the next rainy season. The Department of Hydrological Services in the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry also says accurate weather forecasts are getting more difficult due to the changing climate. Between October and December this year normal to above normal rain is forecast, but for the south it is normal to under normal.
CIFOR